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Book Description

After 25 years, the Turtles come out of their shells

"I could teach a turtle to trade."

While sightseeing at a turtle farm, legendary commodities trader Richard Dennis bet Bill Eckhardt that great traders didn't have to be born - they could be taught. To settle the wager, they recruited 23 individuals from all walks of life, gave them accounts to trade, and trained them for two weeks - hence the Turtle Traders.

The Turtles of 1983 earned more than $100 million in less than four years, becoming part of the most famous experiment in trading history. Dennis had won his bet. But the secret to this success has been a mystery - until now.

Shrouded in secrecy for nearly 25 years, the most successful Turtle Trader of them all breaks the silence, revealing his most lucrative trading strategies - and the Turtle legend

Curtis Faith, who was 19 years old when he joined the Turtles, went on to become the most successful member of the group. For the first time, he explains the wildly successful Turtle system-the rules, timing, risks, and rewards that can deliver enormous profits. Faith also shows you how to use this system in the modern market-including how to select the right trades, smooth out returns, effectively diversify, and know when to exit a winning trade.

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老练的玩家们在大多数时间里都赌得很小，因为优势在赌场一边。他们在等待时机，等待他们偶然获得对赌场的优势。一旦等到了这种机会，这些玩家就会加大赌注，利用他们的优势压倒庄家。

坦率地说，我不在乎别人怎么评价我的成败。他们不会知道我的一生是否有意义，我是否生活得快乐而又充实。只有我自己知道。

重要的不是交易系统，而是交易者贯彻交易系统的能力

•损失厌恶（loss aversion）：对避免损失有一种强烈的偏好。也就是说，不赔钱远比赚钱更重要。

•沉没成本效应（sunk costs effect）：更重视已经花掉的钱，而不是未来可能要花的钱。

•处置效应（disposition effect）：早早兑现利润，却让损失持续下去。

•结果偏好（outcome bias）：只会根据一个决策的结果来判断它的好坏，而不去考虑决策本身的质量。

•近期偏好（recency bias）：更重视近期的数据或经验，忽视早期的数据或经验。 •锚定效应（anchoring）：过于依赖（或锚定）容易获得的信息。

•潮流效应（bandwagon effect）：盲目相信一件事，只因为其他许多人都相信它。

•小数定律（the law of small numbers）：从太少的信息中得出没有依据的结论。

割肉退出对一个有损失厌恶症的交易者来说是件极端痛苦的事，因为这会让损失变成板上钉钉的现实。他相信，只要他坚持不退出，他就有机会等待市场反弹，最终失而复得。沉没成本效应则会让决策过程变了味儿：有损失厌恶症的交易者考虑的不是市场下一步会怎么变化，而是怎么想办法避免让那1 000美元真的打水漂。所以，这个新手决定继续持有这个头寸不是因为他相信市场会反弹，而是因为他不想接受损失，白白浪费那1 000美元。那么，如果价格继续下跌，损失上升到了2 000美元会怎么样呢？

投资者不愿意承认过去的决策并不成功。

投机性的市场分为以下四种状态：

•稳定平静：价格在一个相对较小的范围内上下波动，很少超出这个范围。

•稳定波动：有大的日间或周间变化，但没有重大的月际变化。

•平静的趋势：价格在几个月中呈现出缓慢的运动或趋向，但始终没有剧烈的回调或反方向运动。

•波动的趋势：价格有大的...

情绪陷阱为有影响的认知偏差：

损失厌恶（ loss aversion）：对避免损失有一种强烈的偏好。也就是说，不赔钱远比赚更重要。

沉没成本效应（ sunk costs effect）：更重视已经花掉的钱，而不是未来可能要花的钱。

处置效应（ disposition effect）早早兑现利润，却让损失持续下去。

结果偏好（ outcome bias）：只会根据一个决策的结果来判断它的好坏，而不去考虑决策本身的质量。

近期偏好（ recency bias）：更重视近期的数据或经验，视早期的数据或经验。

锚定效应（ anchoring）：过于依赖（或锚定）容易获得的信息。

潮流效应（ bandwagon ef-fect）：盲目相信一件事，只因为其他许多人都相信它。

小数定律（ the aw of small numbers）：从太少的信息中得出没有依据的结论。

13。15%

2个想法

20：17

在交易的世界里，人类的情绪即是机会所在，也是最大的挑战，掌握它，你就能成功，忽视了它，你就危险了。

交易市场的认知偏差

1. 损失厌恶：对避免损失有一种强烈的偏好，也就是说，不赔钱比赚钱更重要。

2. 沉默成本效应：更重视已经花掉的钱，而不是未来可能要花的钱。

3. 处置效应：早早兑现利润，却让损失持续下去。

4. 结果偏好：只会根据一个决策的结果来判断它的好坏，而不去考虑决策本身的质量。

5. 近期偏好：更重视近期的数据和经验，忽视早期的数据或经验。

6. 锚定效应：过于依赖容易获得的信息。

7. 潮流效应：盲目相信一件事，只因为其他许多人都相信它。

8. 小数定律：从太少的信息中得出没有一句的结论。

书籍介绍

在线阅读本书

Book Description

After 25 years, the Turtles come out of their shells

"I could teach a turtle to trade."

While sightseeing at a turtle farm, legendary commodities trader Richard Dennis bet Bill Eckhardt that great traders didn't have to be born - they could be taught. To settle the wager, they recruited 23 individuals from all walks of life, gave them accounts to trade, and trained them for two weeks - hence the Turtle Traders.

The Turtles of 1983 earned more than $100 million in less than four years, becoming part of the most famous experiment in trading history. Dennis had won his bet. But the secret to this success has been a mystery - until now.

Shrouded in secrecy for nearly 25 years, the most successful Turtle Trader of them all breaks the silence, revealing his most lucrative trading strategies - and the Turtle legend

Curtis Faith, who was 19 years old when he joined the Turtles, went on to become the most successful member of the group. For the first time, he explains the wildly successful Turtle system-the rules, timing, risks, and rewards that can deliver enormous profits. Faith also shows you how to use this system in the modern market-including how to select the right trades, smooth out returns, effectively diversify, and know when to exit a winning trade.